Importance of Simple Forecasting Methods

Wharton research from J. Scott Armstrong suggests simple forecasting methods are more successful than complex solutions. The professor explains why here.

Four Actionable Findings on Executive Compensation

Are top executives paid too much? The answer is clear in the research, and employers may want to take action.

Why Not to Confuse Forecasting with Modeling

Scientific forecasts, not scenarios, are necessary for sound climate policy, says this expert.

Regulating Reverse Psychology

Do government-mandated disclaimers in advertisements help consumers?

A Friendly Bet on Global Warming

There is no cause for alarm at the mid-point of the Armstrong-Al Gore climate “bet.”

Taking a Stand on Climate Change Cost-Benefit Analysis

The New York Times warns civilization likely to end due to man-made warming. Professor Armstrong tries to avert panic.

'Moneyball' for Managers: Paul Meehl’s Legacy

The concept of "Moneyball" provides lessons for employee selection and retention at large enterprises, but not as you might believe.

The Dangers of a Competitor Orientation

Do profits improve when firms attempt to gain market share? If you believe in the common wisdom of students, managers, and professors of marketing, the answer would be “yes.” However, the evidence tells a different story.

How to Decide U.S. Policy in Iran, North Korea, Egypt, Libya … And So On

Polly the Parrot Predicts the Outcome of the U.S. Midterm Elections

Meet "Polly," the political forecasting expert. She picks up others’ predictions about election outcomes and performs her own calculation by averaging them.

Experience Versus Evidence in Advertising

Prior to the 1940s, if you had a disease, it made little difference which doctor you went to -- management is in a similar situation today as medicine was prior to the 1940s.